A 2030 Scenario – Global Wind Power Development
BTM Consult has released a new report with a long-term scenario for wind power development up to 2030. The scenario looks beyond BTM-C’s forecast for 2014 and examines two future trajectories for 20 years ahead: a “Business as Usual” (BAU) projection and a more ambitious “High” version. Both projections are set against the background of the physical wind resources available, the likelihood of an adequate grid network and an assessment of the industry’s ability to grow at the rates required.
2,500 Gigawatts installed by 2030
By 2030 nearly 2,500 GW of wind power capacity is projected to be on line. This would cover 17 % of total global electricity consumption. Today wind power provides 1.3 % of the world’s.electricity.
To achieve this target the level of cumulative installation (CAGR) will need to grow at an average annual rate of 12% beyond 2014. This is moderate compared to the past five years, which have averaged 25%. A large production capability has already been established in Europe, the USA and China over the past three years, only slowed by the emergence of the global financial crisis in autumn 2008. In future the fastest growth will be seen in the US and China.
Wind power can deliver 5 Gigatonnes of avoided CO2 emissions in 2030
f the projections of the BAU scenario are realised, wind power will be producing 5,655 TWh of electricity each year by 2030. That amount of clean electricity will avoid the emission of 5 Gt (billion tonnes) of carbon dioxide, representing 28.2 % of the global emissions of CO2 from all power production, according to the International Energy Agency *).
*) IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 – Reference Scenario
Wind power will therefore be the major contributor from the power production sector in the battle against global warming. The international wind industry is ready to follow the BAU trajectory, and manufacturing facilities are in place in all the major markets of the world.
